Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
